Archive for September, 2012

Reuters: INVESTMENT FOCUS-Tug of war into Q4

With refreshing candour, Stephen Jen of the eponymous hedge fund SLJ Macro Partners reckons it is almost impossible now to predict the short-term direction of global markets.

“Right here, right now, I am not too sure where risk asset prices or the dollar goes,” Jen said.

“The tug-of-war between money printing — good for risk — and the real economic fundamentals — bad for risk — is too intense for me to make a call with confidence. I won’t stand in the way of the Fed and the ECB but remain very sceptical of the view that wealth can be created through money printing.”

Read the original article on the ‘Reuters’ website.

FT: Forex proxy trades fox investors

“Proxy trades are less accessible than in the past,” says Stephen Jen, founder of SLJ Macro Partners, the hedge fund. “The main reason is that global economies are decoupling so you don’t have a clear roro trade.”[...] Read more of this news item

Bloomberg: Recession Indicator Unreliable With Fed Rates: Cutting Research

Two rounds of quantitative easing by the U.S. central bank mean the gap between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the rate on the three-month bill “has been severely distorted and therefore can no longer be relied on to convey a truthful assessment of the risks of recession,” wrote Stephen Jen and Fatih Yilmaz, founders of London-based SLJ Macro Partners LLP, in an Aug. 29 report. [...] Read more of this news item

Telegraph: Global crisis moves East as China suffers rapid downturn

Stephen Jen from SLJ Macro Patrners said we are starting to see Phase III of the global crisis as “the eye of the storm moves East”, with China and emerging markets succumbing at last to the effects of debt leverage.

Mr Jen said markets have already discounted any likely trouble in Europe and America, but have yet to “price” the mounting risks in Asia correctly. “There seems to be a big gap between the prevalent view on China, and what is likely to happen: the sanguine consensus view that China can do no wrong will likely be proven to be incorrect,” he said. [...] Read more of this news item