Archive for September, 2013

Bloomberg: Fed Birth Pared Returns as New Century Looms: Cutting Research

The U.S. could create a sovereign wealth fund that would be worth more than $3 trillion after two decades if it saved a portion of tax revenue from its recently discovered shale oil and gas reserves.

That would be about four times Norway’s fund, the world’s largest, estimate Stephen Jen and Joana Freire of SLJ Macro Partners LLP in London.

The argument for saving, as Norway did with its oil revenue, rather than spending income from crude, as the U.K. did, is the potential for greater investment returns. Doing so supports the wealth of future generations rather than the lifestyle of the current one, they said.

“Unfortunately, more likely than not, the U.S. will spend the tax proceeds from this energy bonanza,” Jen and Freire said.

Read the original article on the ‘Bloomberg’ website.

Telegraph: Jobs champion Janet Yellen leads Fed race as Larry Summers forced out

Stephen Jen, from SLJ Macro Partners, said the Fed’s QE policies are creating extreme distortions. “They are increasingly dangerous as the marginal benefits fade and the marginal cost rise,” he said. Mr Summers is alert to this: Mrs Yellen less so.

Read the original article on the ‘Telegraph’ website.

Reuters: Dollar weakens as news on Summers spurs risk appetite

But Stephen Jen, co-founder of London-based investment firm SLJ Macro Partners, believes any rally in emerging market currencies and sell-off in the dollar will likely be short-lived.

“The medium-term trend in the dollar and the Treasury yield should broadly reflect the trajectory of the U.S. economy, which is up in my view,” he said.

Read the original article on the ‘Reuters’ website.

Bloomberg: Poland Proves Best in Years Since Lehman: Riskless Return

Investors found the courage to seek returns in far-flung markets once they were reassured by central banks, said Stephen Jen, co-founder of hedge fund SLJ Macro Partners LLP in London. Repeated rounds of bond buying gave investors security and then encouraged them to seek higher returns elsewhere, buoying other assets.

Read the original article on the ‘Bloomberg Businessweek’ website.

Hong Kong Standard: QE money heads out on slow moving train

“Ten years of large capital flows into emerging markets cannot be unwound in 10 weeks,” said Stephen Jen, co- founder of London-based investment firm SLJ Macro Partners.

Jen reckons that because emerging market assets were treated as safer than vulnerable developed markets during the years of easy money, any meaningful recovery in those developed markets would lead to more outflows from emerging markets.

Jen said in a note to clients this week: ” the risks of a sudden stop in capital flows into emerging markets will remain high.”

Read the original article on the ‘Hong Kong Standard’ website.